Player Analysis: Duncan Robinson
Duncan Robinson is a specialist shooter of the Miami Heat team, whose game relies mostly on shots from a distance. Averaging 11.1 points per game and 38.5% three-point shooting success, Robinson is a significant factor in his team’s offense. However, his game outside of shooting aspects leaves room for improvement. He averages 1.9 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game, which are modest numbers for a player with his minutes on the court. His True Shooting percentage (56.7%) and shooting efficiency (55.3%) indicate that he has good execution when he finds open shooting opportunities.
On the other hand, Robinson has a problematic defensive game. His defensive rating of 117 shows that opposing players score high points when he is on the court. This further complicates his performance, as the team often suffers due to a weaker defensive presence.
The match against the Houston Rockets brings additional challenges for Robinson. Houston has one of the tightest three-point shooting defenses when playing at home, allowing opposing guards to shoot just 24.8% from behind the three-point line. That’s the lowest percentage in the league, which directly hits Robinson’s main strength. In addition, the Miami Heat is the worst team in offensive rebounding in the last five games, thus losing chances for extra possessions and attacks. Their slow pace of play – second-slowest in the league over the last 15 games – further reduces the number of possessions and shooting opportunities for players like Robinson.
Aside from the Rockets’ defensive pressure, the away court also plays a role. Robinson has traditionally recorded weaker performances when playing away from Miami, which can be attributed to the different conditions and the increased aggressiveness of the home teams on defense.
All these circumstances make it difficult for Robinson to reach or exceed his standard scoring average, especially in a situation where his shooting space will be limited, and the total number of possessions and opportunities will be reduced.
Betting suggestion: Under 11.5 points
Robinson is facing a combination of unfavorable factors: the Houston Rockets’ stout defense, reduced shooting opportunities due to the Miami Heat’s slow pace of play, and a generally poor performance on the road. Under these circumstances, it is expected that he will have difficulty reaching the limit of 11.5 points.
Quota 1.90
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