Bayer Leverkusen: Stability and Attacking Power
Bayer Leverkusen enters this match as the absolute favorite, not only due to the quality difference compared to FC Köln but also because of their fantastic form across all competitions. Xabi Alonso’s team has been playing exceptionally offensive and dynamic football since the beginning of the season, which is reflected in their statistics.
With 49 goals scored in the Bundesliga, Leverkusen is the second most efficient team in the league, right behind Bayern. Their defense is also among the best in the league, conceding 27 goals, placing them among the top four most solid teams in the championship. However, it is interesting to note that they have already conceded three more goals than at the same point last season, which might indicate a slight decline in defensive stability.
What works in their favor for this match is their fantastic home streak. In their last nine games at the BayArena, Leverkusen has secured nine victories, proving to be nearly invincible in front of their fans. Even in the DFB-Pokal, they have been exceptionally stable, keeping clean sheets in their last five matches in this competition, winning with a total aggregate score of 10-0.
However, not everything is perfect. Manuel Neuer made their job easier in the derby against Bayern with an early red card, yet Leverkusen did not create many chances, which could be a warning sign for Alonso. The question is whether they can maintain the same intensity against a team that will certainly play defensively and attempt to surprise them on the counterattack.
Regarding the lineup, Leverkusen will be without Martin Terrier, who is out for the season, as well as Zhaunel Belocian. There is a possibility that Xabi Alonso will rotate the squad due to a tight schedule, so Granit Xhaka might get a rest, while Robert Andrich and Exequiel Palacios could lead the midfield. The attack will be spearheaded by Patrik Schick, supported by Hofmann and Adli on the wings.
Possible Leverkusen lineup:
Hradecky; Hermoso, Mukiele, Hincapie; Frimpong, Andrich, Palacios, Grimaldo; Hofmann, Adli; Schick.
FC Köln: 2. Bundesliga Leader Hoping for an Upset
Köln comes into this match as the underdog, but they should not be written off prematurely. The club is currently the leader of the 2. Bundesliga, with 37 points, but they are only two points ahead of Magdeburg, who sits in third place and occupies the promotion playoff spot. Their main goal is to return to the top flight, but they will certainly not miss the opportunity to cause an upset in the Cup.
Their journey in the DFB-Pokal has been extremely tough – in the previous round, they only managed to defeat Hertha Berlin in the 121st minute, despite Hertha playing with ten men since the 25th minute. This indicates that they have a level of resilience and patience but also that they are vulnerable against stronger teams.
However, Köln has shown that they can be a serious opponent even against top-tier clubs. Their 3-0 victory over Holstein Kiel in the previous round demonstrated their ability to compete with Bundesliga opponents. Their form across all competitions is solid – six wins in their last seven matches, which gives them extra confidence ahead of this clash.
They have been particularly strong away from home – winning five of their last six away games. However, an interesting fact is that in five of their last seven away DFB-Pokal matches, they had to go to extra time. This could be crucial for analyzing this match, as it shows that they struggle to finish games within 90 minutes against stronger teams.
A major issue for them will be the absences – Jakob Steen Christensen and Mathias Olesen will not play, meaning that the midfield will likely be composed of Dejan Ljubičić and Eric Martel. In defense, Köln will probably play with three center-backs, while their main attacking threats will be the duo of Damion Downs and Steffen Tigges.
Betting Tips
Possible Köln lineup:
Schwabe; Hübers, Schmied, Heintz; Gazibegovic, Ljubicic, Martel, Paqarada; Kainz; Downs, Tigges.
Considering all factors – form, squad quality, home advantage, and experience in such matches – Leverkusen is the absolute favorite. However, Köln has shown that they can be tough, especially in cup competitions.
✅ Bayer Leverkusen to win & Over 2.5 goals – Leverkusen has an excellent attack and plays in front of their home fans, while Köln can be tricky but rarely keeps a clean sheet. We expect a high-scoring game with at least three goals.
✅ Leverkusen to win the 1st half – Xabi Alonso’s team often starts aggressively and could already have the lead by halftime.
✅ Patrik Schick to score – The Czech striker will be Leverkusen’s main forward and has great potential to find the net against Köln’s weaker defense.
✅ Both teams to score – NO – Köln may be in solid form, but Leverkusen’s defense in the DFB-Pokal has been impeccable (five consecutive clean sheets). The home team could keep their net untouched.
All in all, Leverkusen should justify their favorite status and advance to the next round. We expect a home victory with at least three goals in the match.
