Lille Analysis
Lille comes into this match following a shocking elimination from the Coupe de France at the hands of Ligue 2 side Dunkerque. Despite taking a 3-0 lead in the penalty shootout, Lille managed to squander their advantage and suffered an embarrassing exit. However, they must quickly shift their focus back to Ligue 1, where they remain in a strong position to qualify for the Champions League.
Currently sitting in fourth place with 35 points after 20 matches, Lille’s campaign so far is identical to last season’s at this stage, when they also finished in the same position. Playing their fourth consecutive home game, Les Dogues will be eager to make amends for their midweek disappointment and build on their recent league form.
One of their biggest advantages is their home dominance over Le Havre. Lille has not lost against this opponent in their last 18 home meetings, with their only defeat coming way back in 1951. Additionally, they have kept clean sheets in over half of their 37 Ligue 1 matches against Le Havre, who have only managed to score once in their last seven visits to Lille.
Paulo Fonseca’s squad is reinforced by the return of captain Benjamin André, who missed the previous league match due to suspension but unfortunately failed to convert a crucial penalty against Dunkerque. A key creative player, Edon Zhegrova, is nearing a return from injury but may not be fully fit for this match. The team has also undergone some changes in attack, with Mohamed Bayo departing on loan to Antwerp and Chuba Akpom arriving as his replacement. The English striker could make his Ligue 1 debut in this fixture.
Le Havre Analysis
Le Havre is in dire straits, finding themselves at the bottom of the table with 15 points, four points behind the relegation playoff spot and six points adrift of safety. Didier Digard’s squad is experiencing a disastrous run of form, having gone nine matches without a win across all competitions. Their struggles were further highlighted by a humiliating Coupe de France exit at the hands of fourth-tier side Stade Briochin.
The team’s biggest problem is their attack, as they have managed to score just 15 goals in 20 league matches—one of the lowest tallies in the competition. Defensively, they have also suffered setbacks, particularly after Arouna Sangante received a red card in their last match against Angers, adding to their defensive woes.
Despite playing against a 10-man Angers side for most of the match, Le Havre failed to secure three points, with veteran forward André Ayew scoring before the team conceded a stoppage-time equalizer. Additionally, their new signing Fodé Ballo-Touré, acquired on a free transfer from AC Milan, suffered an injury in his debut and will likely miss this match.
Statistically, Le Havre’s situation is even more worrying. They have lost all 10 matches this season against teams currently in the top half of Ligue 1, showing that they struggle significantly against stronger opposition. Given their poor away record and Lille’s dominance in this fixture, they face an uphill battle.
Betting Prediction
Lille is undoubtedly the superior team, and after their Coupe de France humiliation, they will be determined to bounce back strongly. Le Havre’s defensive weaknesses and inability to compete with top-half teams make this an ideal opportunity for Lille to secure a comfortable win.
Recommended bets:
✅ Lille to win & Over 1.5 goals – Le Havre’s poor form and Lille’s attacking quality suggest a likely home win with at least two goals in the match.
✅ Lille to keep a clean sheet – Le Havre has struggled offensively, and Lille has historically defended well against them at home.
✅ Jonathan David to score – Lille’s main striker will look to exploit Le Havre’s defensive vulnerabilities.
Lille should control this match from start to finish, and anything other than a convincing win would be a major surprise.
