Alba Berlin – team analysis
Alba Berlin, traditionally one of the strongest teams in the German basketball league, is facing certain problems in its game this season. After the shocking loss in the first round against Hamburg with 80:97, it is clear that the defense is the main weakness of the team, especially in transition and the game under the basket. Although the roster seems stable, with several additions such as Trevion Williams and William McDowell-White, the lack of cohesion on the defensive end could become a key factor in tonight’s game.
Alba has quality individuals in the likes of Matteo Spagnolo and Luis Olinde, but the team effort in the first leg was lacking, especially in defensive rotations and preventing long-range shots. Against Hamburg, Alba allowed as many as 97 points, which is much more than their average in previous seasons. If they don’t fix these segments, Oldenburg will have an opportunity to exploit Berlin’s weaknesses, especially in a quick transition.
Oldenburg – team analysis
On the other hand, Oldenburg opened the season brilliantly, demolishing Heidelberg 105:82. This team, under the leadership of coach Pedro Calles, pushes fast, modern basketball with an emphasis on transition shots and open threes. Oldenburg’s offensive game is extremely fluid, and key players like Justin Jaworski and Geno Crandall excelled in the first round. Crandall is particularly dominant as a playmaker, directing the offense and creating opportunities for his teammates.
Oldenburg showed an extremely high level of energy and intensity on offense, but his three-point shooting was also below average (just 28%), which shows that this team still has room for improvement. If they improve their outside shooting, they can easily exceed the number of points from the previous game. In addition, Oldenburg has a solid inside game, thanks to Mathis Dossou-Yov, who controls rebounds and dominates the racket.
Mutual duels and form
Alba and Oldenburg last met in March 2024, when Alba won 85:67. In that matchup, Oldenburg had a disastrous shooting night, hitting just 22.9% of their 3-pointers, while also committing 25 turnovers, which cost them dearly. However, Oldenburg now seems much better organized and much more offensively potent than last season.
Alba, on the other hand, will be playing at home, but their current form doesn’t promise too much in terms of defence. It will therefore be difficult to control Oldenburg’s attack, which has the potential to seize the initiative and impose its fast pace of play.
Betting on Oldenburg more than 79.5 points
Based on the analysis of the current form, the playing style of both teams and the defensive weaknesses of Alba, the proposal to bet more than 79.5 points for Oldenburg seems like the right decision. Here are some key factors why:
Oldenburg’s Offensive Potential – The team scored 105 points in the first game, and given Alba’s poor defense, they are expected to continue the fast pace and high scoring.
Alba’s defensive woes – The 80-97 loss against Hamburg points to serious holes in the defense, especially against teams that force a fast game. If Alba does not raise the level of defensive discipline, Oldenburg could easily exceed this limit.
Oldenburg’s style of play – Under the guidance of Pedro Calles, Oldenburg forces an aggressive game with a lot of transition shots and half counters. Although their three-point shooting was not the best in the first round, they have the potential to improve that segment in the following games.
Alba under pressure – Considering the poor start to the season, Alba will be under a lot of pressure to improve the impression in front of the home crowd. This pressure can result in more defensive mistakes, which Oldenburg could take advantage of.
Odds 1.75
NOTE
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