AZ Alkmaar Analysis
AZ Alkmaar is competing in the knockout rounds of a European competition for the first time in five years, aiming to progress beyond the intermediate stage in the Europa League for the first time since the 2013-14 season. They secured enough points in the newly introduced League Phase to avoid elimination.
Despite losing in a thrilling 4-3 match against Ferencváros on matchday eight two weeks ago, AZ finished the League Phase in 19th place with 11 points (3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses), narrowly making it to the playoffs by just one point.
Since then, Maarten Martens’ squad has achieved three consecutive wins in domestic competitions, including a 3-1 victory against third-tier club Quick Boys in the KNVB Cup quarter-finals, sandwiched between two 2-0 Eredivisie wins over Willem II and PEC Zwolle. Their latest win came at home against PEC Zwolle last weekend.
Currently sitting fourth in the Eredivisie, AZ is strengthening its bid for Champions League qualification while also shifting focus back to the Europa League. They will now face Galatasaray, a team they previously drew 1-1 with in the League Phase in November.
AZ boasts an impressive home record, having lost just two of their last 35 matches across all competitions (W23 D10). However, their performance in European knockout games is less convincing, as they have suffered three defeats in their last seven home matches at this stage (W2 D2).
Galatasaray Analysis
After being eliminated in the intermediate stage by Slavia Prague last season, Galatasaray has advanced to the playoff round this time, securing 13 points in the League Phase (3 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss).
They narrowly missed out on automatic qualification for the last 16 after a disappointing 2-1 away defeat to Ajax on matchday eight, leaving them in 14th place—just one point behind the top eight teams.
Since then, Okan Buruk’s side has played three domestic matches. They secured back-to-back wins against Gaziantep (1-0) in the Turkish Super Lig and Boluspor (4-1) in the Turkish Cup. However, their recent match against Adana Demirspor in the Super Lig was abandoned in bizarre circumstances. Galatasaray took an early lead through a penalty converted by new signing Álvaro Morata, but shortly after the match resumed, the entire Adana Demirspor squad walked off in protest over the penalty decision.
Despite this controversy, Galatasaray now turns its attention back to the Europa League. The Turkish giants scored a competition-high 19 goals in the League Phase—two more than group leaders Lazio (17). However, they have struggled in the Netherlands, failing to win any of their last six visits, including two defeats this season.
Team News and Lineups
AZ Alkmaar will be without Ruben van Bommel and Ibrahim Sadiq due to injuries, while Kristijan Belic is suspended after accumulating three yellow cards in the League Phase. Jordy Clasie or Kees Smit could step into midfield alongside Peer Koopmeiners, while Sven Mijnans, who scored twice against Ferencváros, is expected to continue in the number 10 role. AZ’s top scorer Troy Parrott (16 goals in all competitions) will lead the attack, supported by Jayden Addai and Mayckel Lahdo on the wings.
AZ Alkmaar predicted lineup:
Owusu-Oduro; Kasius, Goes, Penetra, Wolfe; Clasie, Koopmeiners; Addai, Mijnans, Lahdo; Parrott.
On the other hand, Galatasaray will be without Mauro Icardi, Yunus Akgün, and Ismail Jakobs due to injuries. Meanwhile, Victor Osimhen, Davinson Sánchez, and Lucas Torreira are suspended for the first leg due to accumulated yellow cards.
New signings Álvaro Morata and Carlos Cuesta are available for selection, but Ahmed Kutucu, Mario Lemina, and Przemyslaw Frankowski have not been registered for the competition. Midfielder Berkan Kutlu may be deployed at left-back, while Kerem Demirbay is likely to start in midfield alongside Gabriel Sara.
Galatasaray predicted lineup:
Muslera; Ayhan, Cuesta, Bardakci, Kutlu; Sara, Demirbay; Sallai, Mertens, Yilmaz; Morata.
Betting Prediction
This match presents an interesting challenge for both teams. AZ Alkmaar has an impressive home record, but their recent struggles in European knockout matches could be a cause for concern. Galatasaray, despite their attacking firepower, has not fared well on Dutch soil.
Key factors to consider:
- AZ has lost only 2 of their last 35 home games but has struggled in European knockout matches.
- Galatasaray scored the most goals in the Europa League League Phase but has failed to win in the Netherlands in their last six visits.
- Both teams have key players missing, which could impact their attacking efficiency.
Betting recommendations:
✅ Both Teams to Score (BTTS – Yes) – Both teams have strong attacking units but defensive vulnerabilities.
✅ Over 2.5 Goals – AZ’s home form and Galatasaray’s attacking style could lead to an open game.
✅ Draw or Galatasaray Double Chance (X2) – Galatasaray’s experience in knockout rounds might give them an edge.
A high-scoring draw (2-2) or a narrow win for Galatasaray (1-2) seems like a likely outcome.
