Porto in Europe and Domestic League
Porto managed to avoid an early elimination from the Europa League, securing a spot in the playoff round as one of the 16 teams that finished between ninth and 24th place in the league phase. Their crucial 1-0 victory over Maccabi Tel Aviv in the final round proved decisive, as a draw would have eliminated them and allowed Braga to take their place.
New head coach Martín Anselmi, who arrived from Mexican club Cruz Azul, made a successful debut with the “Dragons” after they had previously suffered a painful home defeat to Olympiacos. However, Porto failed to maintain momentum, drawing 2-2 with Rio Ave in the domestic league before playing a dramatic derby against Sporting last weekend. A 94th-minute goal from Dani Namasso secured them a point and prevented Sporting’s first victory at “Dragão” in nine years.
Despite everything, Porto’s season has not been going well. They currently sit third in the Portuguese league, significantly trailing the leading teams, and have been eliminated from both domestic cup competitions. Even more alarming is the fact that they have not won in their last five league matches, marking their worst run in the 21st century.
Nevertheless, Porto is determined to progress further in the Europa League, though their European record does not inspire much confidence. In their last 25 knockout matches in UEFA competitions, they have won only five times while suffering 16 defeats—although four of those wins came at home.
A historical statistic works in their favor: Porto has won all three previous encounters against Roma (Cup Winners’ Cup 1981/82, Champions League qualifiers 2016/17, and Champions League Round of 16 in 2018/19). In their last duel, Porto triumphed 4-3 on aggregate after extra time.
Roma – Europe as a Lifeline for the Season
Last season, Roma reached the Europa League semifinals, following their triumph in the Conference League the year before. This season, the Italian capital club finished the Europa League league phase with one point more than Porto, securing their playoff spot with a 2-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt in the final round.
However, Roma is experiencing a turbulent period in Serie A. After a narrow 1-0 victory over Venezia in their last match, they are currently in ninth place, far from Champions League qualification spots. Additionally, they have been eliminated from the Coppa Italia, further complicating their season.
Following a period of instability and a managerial change, veteran coach Claudio Ranieri has taken over Roma until the end of the season. His task is to stabilize the team and try to replicate past European successes. However, history is not on his side—Ranieri has lost nine of his last 11 knockout matches in European competitions, and all three of his previous European matches as Roma’s manager ended in 3-2 defeats.
Another issue for Roma is their poor away form in the Europa League—they have won only three of their last 19 away games in the competition, which could be a crucial factor in this two-legged tie against Porto.
Betting Tips
- Double Chance – Porto or Draw (1X): Porto is traditionally strong at home, and despite their poor form, Roma has struggled in European away matches.
- Under 2.5 Goals: Both teams have had issues with efficiency this season, and knockout rounds tend to bring cautious play.
- Porto to Score First: Porto often scores early at home, while Roma tends to start games slowly.
- Roma Under 1.5 Goals: Given their form and away record, it is unlikely that Roma will score more than one goal.
Possible Lineups
Porto:
Costa; Djalo, Perez, Otavio; Mario, Eustaquio, Varela, Moura; Pepe, Mora; Aghehowa
Roma:
Svilar; Mancini, Hummels, Ndicka; Saelemaekers, Kone, Paredes, Angelino; Dybala, Pisilli; Dovbyk
Porto and Roma both have a rich history in European competitions, but their current form leaves plenty of room for uncertainty in this matchup. Porto will rely on home advantage, while Roma aims to break their poor away record and take a step toward another European success. The first leg could be tight with few goals, while the return match in Rome might bring more excitement.
