Player Analysis: James Harden
James Harden is one of the most important players for the Los Angeles Clippers, and his efficiency in defensive rebounding this season has placed him in the top 10% of players in that segment (91st percentile). He is averaging 5.3 rebounds per game on the road, which is a significant improvement over previous seasons. Considering that Harden is a key player in the rotation and spends 34.3 minutes on the court, his presence on the floor increases the chances of collecting rebounds, because he is constantly in the center of the action.
The matchup against the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers brings both teams a high-tempo game, which means more attempts at both ends of the court. The Spurs play at a fast pace, ranking as the eighth-fastest team over their last 15 games, while the Clippers are ninth. The faster pace of the game leads to more shots and rebound opportunities, which increases the chances of defensive rebounds, and Harden is specific in that he is often in the right place at the right time.
In addition, the Clippers are among the best offensive rebounding teams, which means they will have more opportunities to keep the ball and create new offense, which will give Harden more opportunities to grab defensive rebounds. Through his role on the team and his high level of minutes, Harden is in a good position to reach or surpass his 5.5 rebounds again.
Betting Suggestion: Over 5.5 rebounds
Given his current form, consistent minutes, pace of play and the advantage that a quick game and many attempts will provide, betting on more than 5.5 rebounds for Harden seems like a very logical and worthwhile choice. More offense and a faster game are expected to allow Harden to collect more rebounds during the matchup, thereby surpassing this limit.
Odds 1.90
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