JL Bourg team analysis
JL Bourg-en-Bresse have earned attention for their outstanding performances this season, achieving a record number of wins in the French league and reaching the final of the Eurocup. Their strength as a team was also shown in the quarter-finals of the domestic championship when they defeated Nanterre. After losing the first leg against Monaco, they managed to come back in the second leg to tie the score at 1-1, which is a great achievement before the series moves to Bourg.
In the first matchup, they met with a three-point shooting challenge, which led to the expulsion of the coach and players. However, the team managed to pull themselves together and play with greater concentration in the next game. The key player in this match was Zaccharie Risacher with 21 points and eight rebounds. Although they have struggled with the three-point shot, which is normally one of their stronger weapons, it is important to note that Bourg is showing significantly better performances at home.
In order to continue to threaten Monaco, it is crucial that they improve their shooting percentages and impose their rhythm of play. Controlling the rebound on both ends of the court will be key to increasing their chances of victory.
Statistically, JL Bourg-en-Bresse stands out with slightly better offensive rebounding (30% ORB% compared to AS Monaco Basket’s 33%) and offensive efficiency (114.3 ORtg compared to AS Monaco Basket’s 119.5 ). Also, Bourg-en-Bresse has a better ratio of points conceded to conceded (eDiff 10 compared to AS Monaco Basket’s 9), which indicates their better efficiency in keeping the ball and moving to the defense. However, deciding which team is better will depend on a number of factors, including current form, tactics and quality of players.
Monaco team analysis
During the previous season, AS Monaco Basket achieved impressive success by winning the title in the French league and reaching the Final Four of the Euroleague. However, this season was not as successful, with the absence of a trophy in the French Cup and a failure in the Euroleague. They currently have a 1-1 performance in the semi-finals of the domestic championship, which suggests a slightly less impressive performance compared to the previous season.
The team’s biggest problem during the previous matches was the absence of a key player, Mike James, who was missing in decisive moments. Although they managed to win the first duel, the lack of James was noticeable in the second match, when the team lacked quality weapons in the attack. The return of John Brown did not bring the expected offensive improvement, since he is better known for his defensive abilities.
The best performance so far in the series was achieved by Elie Okobo with a total of 36 points, while Jaron Blossomgame also had solid games. However, the team has been challenged in its three-point shooting, making just 11 total three-pointers in two games played. This resulted in just 15% shooting from beyond the three-point line, which severely limited their offensive threat.
Monaco relies on its strong team defense, which has not been at full strength during previous matches. The key to their victory will be rebound control and rhythm of the game, along with an improvement in three-point shooting percentage. Statistically, AS Monaco Basket has slightly better offensive rebounding (ORB% 33% compared to JL Bourg-en-Bresse’s 30%) and offensive efficiency (ORtg 119.5 compared to JL Bourg-en-Bresse’s 114.3 -a). However, the team faces challenges in offensive rhythm and three-point shooting, which they will need to improve in order to regain control of the series.
Betting proposal
159.5 points/under (159.5-)
I suggest betting under 159.5 points in this match. Analyzing the playing styles and past performances of both teams, we notice that both teams rely on their defenses and tend to play disciplined basketball. Also, in the previous meetings of these teams, the results were often below this number of points. Considering that, we expect that this match will be fairly even and that both teams will force their defenses.
Odds 1.75
NOTE
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